When the probability calibration mode is enabled, you are able to log your confidence with each guess and track how well your probabilities match reality.
A calibration chart showing whether you're over- or underconfident is available on the stats page.
Make a Fermi estimate: break the problem into simple factors, choose round numbers, then multiply.
Example: How many new cars are sold annually in Japan?
Population a little over 100M -> about 50M households -> roughly 80% own a car -> 40M cars. If cars are replaced about every 10 years, that means roughly 4M new cars sold per year.
Guess the answer to estimation questions in 6 or less tries.
After each guess, you'll see if your answer was too high or too low. An arrow pointing down means that the correct answer is below your guess.
The color of the arrows shows how close you are: orange indicates your guess is within ±50% of the answer, red means it is further away
You win if your guess is within ±20% of the correct answer.
Source & Stats
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The x-axis shows your declared confidence, and the y-axis shows the actual accuracy. You are perfectly calibrated if you are on the diagonal line.
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